John Hollinger's Mavericks Preview: Predictions, Analysis for the 2022-23 Season (2023)

Last season: 52-30 (lost in conference finals); 15th in offense, sixth in defense
Main additions:C Christian Wood, C JaVale McGee
main deductions: PGjalen brunson, SF Sterling Brown, C. Boban Marjanović, PGTrey Burke
design choices: PGhardy jade(37)

Rarely do you see a successful season finale with more questions.

Announcement

By all standards,Dallas'The 2021-22 campaign ended near the ceiling of what could have been expected. Not just because the Mavs have eliminated the top seedsphoenix sunwith great wins in the final two games to advance to the Western Conference Finals, but also because of the various concepts tested along the way: that signing Jason Kidd wouldn't be the disaster it was in Milwaukee or Brooklyn; that tradeKristaps Porzingiswas the right way to rearrange a heavy list; and especially that playing five by fiveLuka DončićHis unique talent was a post-season cheat code that few could crack.

Unfortunately, a lot happened after the end of last season. The Mavs lost Brunson, their second-best player in the playoff race, and replaced him with…Wood and McGee? Even after trading his first-round pick to Wood, using the money from the mid-level exception to add another center in McGee drew attention. Meanwhile, there are two people who can haggle the whole list.

They had no choice in the first round due to the lumber trade and ended up taking Hardy in the second round; it might help in the future, but that time is not now, not after posting a 9.9 PER in 25 G League games last season as a 19-year-old.

(Video) 1 Western Conference rival monitoring Luka Doncic’s situation in Dallas.

Even with Brunson's loss, the Mavs are going into the season with $14 million in luxury tax as Dončić's supermax extension kicks off. His salary jumps from a $10 million offer to a $37 million proposal that's still an offer, yes, but one that ties the Mavs' hands more tightly on any moves forward.

The good news is that the Mavs have Dončić, the kind of elite sun-focused offensive star who instantly awards playoff chances to any roster he joins. The pick-and-roll master more or less only shared Phoenix in the second round last season (58.3 percent real shooting on an incredible 41.8 percent usage); including losing the conference final togolden stateThe Mavs' best defense was primarily a result of the Mavs' almost complete inability to control the Warriors' guards.

The bad news is that in addition to Dončić, the Mavs...Spencer Dinwiddie?Dorian Finney Smith? Look, Dallas has some good, valuable role players, and most of them have pretty good contracts. But it's hard to get excited about Dallas marching through the postseason without a second star player on the roster; we've seen Dončić run conspicuously out of gas in playoff games over the last two seasons, even with Brunson at his side. The uncompensated loss of the Mavs' second best shotmaker leaves a big dent, with Dinwiddie the only half-decent option on the roster to fill it. He was great for Dallas in late 2021-22, but his shooting numbers in Mav also far outweighed the rest of his career.

The dent is bigger because of the Mav's salary cap. How exactly would they get another Top 50 player to partner with Dončić?

They are already overstretched and have no prospect of significant salary headroom until 2025 at the earliest; their few young players are not in demand by other teams. Dallas also can't trade a first-round pick until 2025, which devalues ​​some scenarios where it would use draft equity to build the roster. Two bad contracts (davis bertans,Tim Hardaway Jr.) hinder what is different adecent looking cover.

Dallas' best-case scenario is to put every remaining chip on the table for a second-rate star; think ofdonovan mitchelltreat thatclevelanddone for example. The Mavs can trade their first round pick in 2025 as long as they avoid a bottom 10 record this season (when the pick goes to thetrinketsof trade in Porziņģis). That means they can bid on the early table in 2025, 2027 and 2029 and choose swaps in 2026 and 2028; they would probably have to put all that equity on the table as they would use Bertāns (three years, $49 million left on his contract) and Hardaway (three years, almost $54 million) as salary equivalents.

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Even those scenarios require fortuitous circumstances: an unlucky star elsewhere, willing to play second fiddle to Dončić, and not so desirable that another team would outbid Dallas' best bid.

Announcement

Meanwhile, this year's Mavs version will be a slightly more frustrating version of last season. Kidd showed that he has grown as a coach since theDollarsdisaster, especially with his work on the defensive side. The Mavs limited both the opponent's 3-pointers and the opponent's shots to the rim, forcing opponents to beat them from center despite the limited manpower that became more apparent as the playoffs progressed. That said, those limitations are real, and putting Wood in a prominent role will only exacerbate them.

Meanwhile, the Mavs ranked 15th on offense last season, even with Dončić, losing that team's second best offensive player. They were able to go 10-10 last year in the games Dončić missed, including winning two playoff games; it's hard to see it repeating itselfwithoutBrunson.

However, Dallas gave up a late first-round pick and three marketable players to acquire Wood, a solid in-your-face move. Wood has his defensive issues, but he's a multi-talented offensive player who can roll or burst; in that sense, he's arguably even more menacing than the late Porziņģis, and should thrive in a mostly five-out system.

On the offensive side, however, there is still at least one clear opportunity for improvement, one where Wood and McGee could help significantly: The Mavericks might try to pull off a quick breakaway. Once. Just give it a spin. Who knows, they might even like it and try it twice in the same game.

It's one of the weirder subplots in the league. When a team's best maker gets a bunch of defensive rebounds, that team almost automatically becomes a huge threat in transition because they already have the ball in the hands of the most dangerous player. ThinkLeBron JamesOrussel westbrookin its heyday, for example.

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Not for Dallas. Dončić led the Mavs in defensive rebounding last season, hitting nearly seven per game…and the Mavs were last in offensive transition play. It was almost as if they were playing a different sport.Philadelphiahe was second worst, still having nearly 10 percent more than Dallas. The Mavs also generated points from transitional games less often than any other team by a wide margin. (Confusingly, this isn't quite the same as the "quick break points" you see in the score box - see table.)

NBA Offensive Transition Games, 2021-22*

EquipmentFrequencyPoints/Game

Dallas

12,3%

14.9

Philadelphia

13,6%

17.1

Washington

13,9%

16.5

NY

13,9%

17.2

atlanta

13,9%

17.7

competition average

15,2%

19.1

* – Fuente: NBA.com

I always thought this was a Rick Carlisle thing, but with Kidd it got even worse in 2021-22; Meanwhile Carlislepacemakerthey were only 25 in crossover frequency, true greyhounds compared to the Mavs. (The remarkable irony of Kidd's success last season is that one of the all-time greatest passers coached a team that wouldn't run unless it had a five-to-nil bye.)

Announcement

I used to think this was a Dončić thing too, but when I watched Slovenia at the EuroBasket tournament, he generated easy no-pass buckets from his rebounds on seemingly every other trip. This tied into earlier memories of scouting a 16-year-old Dončić in Madrid and seeing him walk down the field with defensive board planks as if he were Bobby Orr.

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Now I'm confused. I don't really have a great answer as to why the Mavs never run, but it clearly prevents their offense from reaching their ceiling; one of the reasons they are in the overall league average is that transitions are the easiest baskets. Adding two of the fastest crosses in the game should help here; as well as adding bits of playtime for his more athletic non-centered,jose verde.

The other reason the Mavericks should run more is the big picture of managing Dončić throughout the season. Getting a few starting buckets in transition is much easier for him than dribbling on a high pick-and-roll for 22 seconds and making every call on every play. As mentioned above, we've already seen Dončić wear down at the end of multiple playoff games; He also has enough kilometers on the clock for a 23-year-old and has just a few more on the clock for Slovenia.

In the absence of another trade, the Mavs rely on Dončić to drag them through the regular season to a tricky point; one of the luxuries of having Brunson last season was that the offense still had a fighting chance without Dončić. The Mavs can still lean on some staples of that postseason run, most notably a mismatch-punishing five-out style, which Wood should fit in fairly easily, but without enough shot-makers that could quickly turn into four men looking around at iso's failure.

As a result, I find it hard to see Dallas match their total of 52 wins from last season. The West will be tougher and the Dallas roster looks worse. Without some dramatic seasonal work from the front office, a return to the conference finals seems unlikely.

Prediction: 46-36, eighth West

Mavericks van BORG en BORD$

• DEPOSIT — Expected replacement value, per 100 assets, accHollinger's BORG formula
• BORD$ — Expected value for 2022-23 based onHollinger's BORD$ formula
• (R) — Rookie, no screening available
• (2w) — Player with a mutual contract

Potential closure 5

PlayerPos.BORGRAND $

Spencer Dinwiddie

PG

0,98

$ 8.858.953

Luka Doncic

SG

7.23

$ 67.841.240

Dorian Finney Smith

SF

2.63

$ 24.068.106

maximum glue

FP

1.44

$ 10.865.874

Christian wood

C

2.76

$ 23.605.861

Probably the rest of the list

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PlayerPos.BORGRAND $

Tim Hardaway Jr.

SG

2.01

$ 16.412.327

reggie bullock

SF

1.73

$ 14.601.748

Dwight Powel

C

1.25

$ 8.482.057

davis bertans

FP

1.16

$ 7.543.330

jose verde

SF

0,53

$ 4.437.892

Frank Ntilikina

SG

0,14

$ 2.548.938

And Vale McGee

C

-0,58

Minimum

teo pinson

SG

--

Minimum

Jaden Hardy (right)

PG

--

Minimum

Tyler Dorsey (2w)

SG

--

--

(Photo of Luka Dončić and Spencer Dinwiddie: Kevin Jairaj / USA Today)

FAQs

Have the Mavericks ever won? ›

Recent News. Dallas Mavericks, American professional basketball team based in Dallas that plays in the National Basketball Association (NBA). The Mavericks have won one NBA championship (2011). The Mavericks were founded in 1980 and, like most expansion teams, struggled in their first seasons in the NBA.

What are the Dallas Mavericks values? ›

Our core values of Character, Respect, Authenticity, Fairness, Teamwork and Safety are the foundation of our organization.

Will Mavs make playoffs 2023? ›

All rights reserved. The 2022-23 NBA season mercifully ended for the Dallas Mavericks Friday night. While they still have one regular season game to play before closing the season, Dallas' 115-112 loss to the Chicago Bulls officially eliminated them from postseason contention.

What are the chances of the Mavericks win the finals? ›

This Brogdon quote sums up why Celtics aren't back in NBA Finals. Additionally, the Dallas Mavericks have odds at +2200 and Memphis Grizzlies have +2500. Behind the two Western Conference teams are the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Minnesota Timberwolves, both with +3000 odds.

What is the meaning behind the Dallas Mavericks? ›

At the 1980 NBA All-Star Game, league owners voted to admit the new team, with the team's name coming from the 1957–1962 television western Maverick. The name was chosen by the fans with 4600 postcards received beating Wranglers and Express.

Who is favorite warriors Mavericks? ›

The Warriors are averaging 118.3 points per game this season, second-best in the league, while the Mavericks average 113.7, 17th-best. Golden State is a 2.5-point favorite in the latest Warriors vs. Mavericks odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points is 237.

How much did Mark Cuban buy the Dallas Mavericks score? ›

On January 4, 2000, Cuban purchased a majority stake in the NBA's Dallas Mavericks for $285 million from H. Ross Perot Jr. In the 20 years before Cuban bought the team, the Mavericks won only 40% of their games and had a playoff record of 21–32.

Who is most likely to win NBA 2023? ›

The Denver Nuggets are the odds-on favorite to win the 2023 NBA Championship. The Miami Heat are once again, the underdogs of the series. The Denver Nuggets lead the Miami Heat 1-0.

Why did Mavs tank? ›

By Tyler Watts | Apr 14, 2023

The Dallas Mavericks decided to tank their final two games of the regular season with the hopes of keeping their first-round draft pick. It started with a game against the Bulls where the loser was likely to finish with the tenth-worst record.

How can the Mavs keep their pick? ›

By picking No. 10, the Mavs will be able to keep it because the pick would have been sent to the New York Knicks if it dropped below No. 10. This pick was involved in the Kristaps Porzingis trade in January 2019.

What is the longest winning streak in Mavericks history? ›

The longest winning streak in Dallas Mavericks history is 17 games, set during the 2006-07 season.

How did the Mavericks lose to the Warriors? ›

The Dallas Mavericks lost what was the must-win game of the season so far, a disappointing 127-125 loss to the Golden State Warriors Wednesday night in Dallas. Luka Doncic led all scorers with 30 points in his first game back from a thigh injury. Jonathan Kuminga led a balanced Warriors effort with 22 points.

Are Mavericks out of playoff? ›

Mavericks eliminated from NBA playoffs, completing collapse after going all-in with Kyrie Irving.

What are Dallas Mavericks fans called? ›

The ManiAACs started as an idea from Mark Cuban to enhance the game experience for fans during the 2002 playoffs and instantly became fan favorites in Dallas and all of sports.

What is the Dallas Mavericks controversy? ›

The NBA slapped the Dallas Mavericks with a $750,000 fine after determining the team was resting players in an effort to lose and keep its first-round draft pick.

Why is maverick logo a horse? ›

A horse is one of the most remarkable symbols of the Mavericks trademark. This majestic animal represents freedom and courage.

Did Mavericks win protest? ›

Per the NBA, the protest failed because Dallas was not able to show it was deprived of a fair opportunity to win the game. The NBA today denied the Dallas Mavericks' protest of their 127-125 loss to the Golden State Warriors on March 22, 2023.

Who is number 1 Warriors? ›

Golden State Warriors Roster
NamePOSAGE
J. Green #1PF32
J. Kuminga #0PF20
J. Poole #3SG23
K. Looney #5PF27
13 more rows

Does Charles Barkley like the Warriors? ›

But I'm sayin', I really don't like the fans." Barkley emphasised on how the franchise's fanbase changed after they moved from Oakland to Chase Center in San Francisco's Mission Bay. "They're just awful people," Barkley added.

How much are the Dallas Mavericks worth in 2023? ›

According to Forbes, the Dallas Mavericks are worth $3.3 billion in 2023. Considering that Cuban owns 85% of the team, they make up nearly $3 billion of his total net worth. Under Cuban's ownership, the Mavericks have been to the NBA Finals twice, in 2006 and 2011.

How much profit does the Dallas Mavericks make a year? ›

Dallas Mavericks revenue is $5.3M annually. After extensive research and analysis, Zippia's data science team found the following key financial metrics. Dallas Mavericks has 100 employees, and the revenue per employee ratio is $53,000. Dallas Mavericks peak revenue was $5.3M in 2022.

Which NBA teams have never won a championship? ›

The Indiana Pacers, the New Orleans Pelicans, the Brooklyn Nets, the Orlando Magic, the Los Angeles Clippers, the Utah Jazz, the Charlotte Hornets, the Denver Nuggets, the Phoenix Suns, the Memphis Grizzlies, the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Minnesota Timberwolves have never won an NBA championship despite all making ...

What is the Dallas Mavericks biggest win? ›

All Time Biggest Dallas Mavericks Wins

Based on point differential, the largest win in Dallas Mavericks history is by 53 points, which occured in a 123-70 win over the Philadelphia 76ers on Nov 13, 2014.

When was Dallas Mavericks last championship? ›

It was held from May 31 to June 12, 2011. Entering the series as heavy favorites, the Miami Heat won the opening game and eventually led the series 2–1 before the underdog Dallas Mavericks won the next three games to achieve their first championship in franchise history.

What is the Mavericks record after the All Star break? ›

This trade ended the Luka Doncic-Porzingis era and flipped a new page for the Mavericks. Following the All-Star break, the Mavericks went 17-6 and finished fourth in the West.

What player scored 100 points in a single game? ›

Chamberlain holds the single-game scoring record, having scored 100 points in a game in 1962. The youngest player to score at least 60 points in a regular season game is Devin Booker (70 points; 20 years and 145 days), and the oldest is Bryant (60 points; 37 years and 234 days).

What is the hardest championship win in NBA history? ›

Ranking the 10 Most Difficult Championship Runs in NBA History
  • 2019-2020 Los Angeles Lakers. ...
  • 2020-2021 Milwaukee Bucks. ...
  • 2004-2005 San Antonio Spurs. ...
  • 1992-1993 Chicago Bulls. ...
  • 2001-2002 Los Angeles Lakers. ...
  • 1994-1995 Houston Rockets. ...
  • 1997-1998 Chicago Bulls. ...
  • 2003-2004 Detroit Pistons.
Mar 24, 2023

Which NBA team has the longest championship drought? ›

1. Sacramento Kings: 72 Seasons (Last Title 1950-51)

Who has the most threes in a game for the Mavericks? ›

The Dallas Mavericks drained their most threes in a game on March 2 and on February 12, 2021, with 25 three-pointers.

Who has the most points in Mavs history in a game? ›

Luka Doncic has put up the most points for the Mavericks in a game, with 60 points versus the Knicks on December 27.

Who scored the most points in a game on the Mavericks? ›

Irving scored 32 points, besting Rolando Blackman's 29 points from the 1987 All-Star game. The closest any Maverick has come to beating Blackman's mark before Irving was of course, Dirk Nowitzki.

Are the Mavs eliminated? ›

Mavericks eliminated after 'organizational decision' to limit Luka Doncic, sit Kyrie Irving. DALLAS – Kyrie Irving had a seat next to Dallas owner Mark Cuban, and fellow All-Star Luka Doncic wasn't far away in sweats after his limited duty was finished.

What was the old name of the Dallas Mavericks? ›

1979–1981: Beginnings. In 1979, businessman Don Carter and partner Norm Sonju requested the right to bring an NBA franchise to Dallas. The last professional basketball team in Dallas had been the Dallas Chaparrals of the American Basketball Association, which moved to San Antonio in 1973 to become the San Antonio Spurs ...

When did LeBron drop 8 points in the finals? ›

LeBron James dropped his fewest points in an NBA Finals game versus the Mavericks on June 7, 2011, with 8 points.

What pitcher has the most wins before the All Star break? ›

When it comes to wins at the AS break, your leader is the White Sox' Wilbur Wood, who had 18 wins at the break in 1973. (He also had 14 losses, was not selected for the All Star Team and finished the season 24-20.) Wilbur Wood 18 wins and the break and not an All Star selection.

Who has the best record going into the All Star break? ›

Final record: 114-48 (Won World Series)

The MLB All-Star Game was first played in 1933. Since then, no team has had a better record at the break than the '98 Yankees -- the greatest juggernaut of the late-'90s New York dynasty.

Who has the most multi hit All Star Games? ›

Mickey Mantle struck out more times than any other All-Star with seventeen whiffs over the course of a career that included sixteen All-Star Games.

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