Analysis | Four figures that say a lot about the current state of politics (2023)



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the big idea

Four figures that say a lot about the current state of politics

They've been on the radio, they've held rallies, they've been on their knees at the Iowa stock exchange.butter cow, and nowFinally Republicanthe presidential candidateMeet this week for the first primary debate of the 2024 cycle., a place to say many things and maybe even discuss some of them.

Wednesday's leg in Milwaukee features aDonald Trumpinvalidation of former presidentthe big favorite for the nominationHe has decided to skip an event that his potential rivals will take advantage of to present or re-present themselves to voters.


But forget the numbers of horse racing for a moment. There are other numbers that tell a more interesting story about the current moment in politics.

Today, The Daily 202 will focus on four data points that have caught our attention.with the caveat that it is always a bit risky to rely too heavily on one poll or another, rather than a series of them. The numbers are about:

  • What do voters mean when they talk about “the economy”?
  • Republican voters' loyalty to Trump.
  • What the Republican Party Thinks Aboutpresident prayTrump's weakness hurt non-Trump candidates.
  • The partisan divide over whether the government has too much power.

2024 is all about the economy. What is the economy"?

Biden's re-election campaign is progressing witha $25 million digital and television advertising campaign in theaters of war,cnnArlette Saenz recorded.You can see it here.

Is aboutWhat other thing?the economy. ByRonald ReaganThe debate phase of “Are you better off than you were four years ago?” UnpleasantJames CarvilleTrue to the motto "it's the economy, stupid," the economy always shapes our four-year races.


Biden's announcement hits all the high notes of his administrationProduction has increased! Clean energy is on the rise! Unemployment at historic low! “America is back” from the depths of the pandemic! But one thing that is not being addressed is the blemish of inflation.

Here's the number that caught our attention: 57 percent.

This is according to a survey conducted in July by The Economist/YouGovfound that 57 percent said soThe price of goods and services was the best measure of how the national economy was doing., versus 15 percent saying jobs and six percent saying the stock market.

The Republican Party's Trust Factor in Trump

Trump hizo30,573 false or misleading claims as president, according to a count ofWashington Post. His most transcendental falsehoodthat they stole his re-electionhe led a mob of his supporters to violently disrupt Biden's victory certification.

But his voters trust him.A new CBS surveyfound that 71 percent of Trump voters say the former president tells them the truth.

It may not seem like much. Butscores above “friends and family” (63 percent), “conservative media figures” (56 percent) and “religious leaders” (42 percent).

The Republican party sees Biden as weak and this hurts candidates other than Trump

In theNew York TimesShane Goldmacher had a really interesting article this weekend about how Republican voters voteBiden's perception as weak and ineptharmed candidates not named Trump becauseerodes what is called the “suitability” argumentthat the Republican Party must pick someone else to win in November 2024.

“For months, Republican voters have consumed a steady diet of fragments of the stumbling Mr Biden, with words andsand bags, ThatThey now view the current 80-year-old Democrat as so vulnerable that virtually any Republican could beat him.— even a former president who was impeached four times and lost the last election,” Shane wrote.


The number here is 43 percent.— the support Biden and Trump received in an NYT-Siena poll.

If you're a candidate whose name isn't Trump, how can you convince voters to let go of the past and choose a new face?

A schism in government

The year is 2003. More Democrats (47 percent) than Republicans (35 percent) tell Gallup that they agree that "the federal government has too much power." But both are below 50 percent: the effects of the September 11 attacks are still being felt.

But the number of Republican Parties increased under the presidencyBarack Obama. And now, after the arrival of the covid in 2020,73 percent Republicanthey say the FBI has too much power, compared to 31 percent of Democrats.

The figure for the Republican Party rose from 48% in 2007 to 54% in 2008.then increased to 78% in 2009.(In the Trump era, Democrats only outnumbered 50%, up from 51% in 2019.)


Both sides tend to change when the other side has the White House.

"But since 2009, Republicans have been more likely than Democrats to say the government is too powerful, only by greater margins under a Democratic president than under a Republican president."Gallup said.

And that points to a crisis in American politics, in which the Republican Party seems to view democratic rule as undesirable, but also as illegitimate.


What happens now

Hilary is now a post-tropical cyclone; California hit by floods and landslides

Hilary is likely to cause 'catastrophic and life-threatening flooding' in parts of the southwestern United States and Mexico's Baja California region through Monday, the National Hurricane Center said.warned.Tens of millions of people received a tropical storm warning, the first of its kind for Southern California.Heavy rains and flooding are expected in parts of Arizona and Nevada."Informer over Bryan Pietsch, Leo Sands and Maham Javaid.

US citizens in Belarus must leave immediately, the embassy says

“Do not travel to Belarus as Belarusian authorities continue to facilitate Russia's unprovoked attack on Ukraine., the buildup of Russian military forces in Belarus, the arbitrary application of local laws, the potential for civil unrest, the risk of arrest, and the embassy's limited ability to assist U.S. citizens living in or traveling to Belarus.US citizens in Belarus must leave immediately."The guidelines of the US Embassy in Belarus read:.

Poll: Trump has significant lead in Iowa, though many voters could change their minds

He NBC News-Des Moines Register-Mediacom-investigation, published before the first Republican debate this week, found that42 percent of likely Republican caucus attendees say Trump is their first choice, followed by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis at 19 percent.Maegan Vazquez reports this.

Lectures from the Post during lunch

State lawmakers are taking steps to ban Chinese land ownership

Lawmakers from 33 states have introduced 81 bills this year that would ban the Chinese government, some China-based companies and many Chinese citizens from buying farmland or real estate near military bases., according to a Washington Post analysis of data collected by Asian Pacific American Justice, an advocacy group. A dozen bills are now law in states such as Alabama, Idaho, and Virginia."Kimberly Please inquire.

Before investigating Hunter Biden, the prosecutor worked with his brother Beau

“Then acting United States Attorney for DelawareDavid C. WeissAfter being convicted of fraud in 2010, he was joined by a key partner in the case:Beau Biden, the Attorney General. weis worked conJoe Bidenthe oldest son to discuss prosecution strategies.”Michael Kranish informs.


  • Today, that little-known story highlights the profound challenges Weiss faces as he conducts a newly indicted investigation into Beau's brother, Hunter a small state long politically dominated by his father."

'Could Sell Golf': How DeSantis and His Aides Courted Lobbyists for Campaign Money

“While it is common for politicians to solicit donations from lobbyists,DeSantis' efforts to effectively auction off his spare time to those seeking to influence state policy created a surprisingly special avenue for wealthy donors to access the documented in writing, ethicists said. The golf-related fundraising was part of a broader effort by DeSantis to build relationships with major taxpayers, some of whom have received state appointments or benefited from state previously reported by The Post"Reporting by Isaac Arnsdorf and Josh Dawsey.

… and further

Elon Musk's shadow government

“Last October, Colin Kahl, then the Pentagon's Deputy Secretary of Defense for Policy, sat in a Paris hotel preparing for a call to avert disaster in Ukraine.An employee handed him an iPhone, partly to avoid a deluge of late-night text messages and colorful emojis on Kahl's own phone. Kahl had returned to his room, with its heavy curtains and distant view of the Eiffel Tower, after a day of meetings with officials from Britain, France and Germany.A senior defense official told me Kahl was surprised who he was about to contact: "He said, 'Why am I calling Elon Musk?'’”Ronan Farrow reports for the New Yorker.


  • The reason soon became clear."While Musk is not technically a diplomat or statesman, I felt it was important to treat him as such given the influence he had on this issue."Calvo told me."

Pence undermines Trump's defense in classified documents case

Former Vice President Mike Pence said Sunday that he was unaware of any widespread release of documents by President Donald J. Trump.when they were together in the White House, refuting one of the former president's main defenses against charges of endangering national security."HeNOTPeter Baker informa.

Biden agenda

Prior to the visit to Maui, Biden's administration and personal response were discussed

“Behind the scenes, his aides say, Biden led a robust and tough federal response: He spoke daily with state officials in Hawaii, directed federal first responders to provide all necessary assistance, and received detailed briefings as the crisis unfolded.But as the death toll climbed to triple digits, his calm public approach contrasted sharply with his longstanding image as an empathetic leader and provided critics with a new angle to attack him politically."Help God information.

The Biden administration will urge Americans to buy new COVID-19 boosters

The Biden administration plans to urge all Americans to get a booster shot for the coronavirus this fall. to counter a new wave of infectionsa White House official said on Sunday: “That reports Reuters.

The Biden administration announces more new funding for rural broadband infrastructure

“The Biden administration on Monday continued its push for the Internet for All by 2030,the announcement of approximately $667 million in new grants and loans to build more broadband infrastructure in rural America."HeAssociated pressKavish Harjai-informatie.


  • The 37 new beneficiaries represent the fourth funding round of the programmenamed ReConnect by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. An additional 37 projects received $771.4 million in grants and loans announced in April and June.

How military aid reaches Ukraine, in pictures

In the past 16 months, the United States and nearly 50 other countries have delivered more than 150,000 tons of equipment (equivalent to the weight of 1,000 Boeing 747 aircraft) to Ukraine.. Light ammunition shipped at the start of the war has been replaced by tanks, HIMARS rocket launchers andstormschaduwcruise missile systems. According to the Pentagon, the United States alone has pledged more than $43 billion in military aid.Reporting by Greg Miller, Loveday Morris and Mary Ilyushina.

hot left

'I can't get into people's heads': Kamala Harris tries to reshape her public image before 2024

“His political future, and possibly the success of the 2024 Democratic ticket, hinges on one simple question:Is it possible for Kamala Harris to give a second impression?"politicsasks Eugene Daniels.

  • For Harris, it's a question that is fundamentally off the mark.In his view, she is the same person she was when the prevailing narrative about her was that of a top prosecutor, a rising political talent, and even the future of the Democratic Party.”
  • “You could have followed me [before 2020] in Iowa,” Harris told POLITICO in one of two exclusive interviews.“Four years ago you would have seen the same thing. It's always what I've been.So I can't get into people's heads about why they characterize things in one way or another. It's not like I found myself. I was always here and never left."

hot anyway

Mitt Romney's political journey reaches a crossroads

"Senator.Mitt RomneyHe has to decide if he has another fight in him."HeWall Street JournalReporting by Eliza Collins and Siobhan Hughes.

  • The Republican from Utah plans to announce soon whether he wants a second term, after a rollercoaster ride in politics that included winning the Republican Party's presidential nomination just over a decade ago. Since,Romney has become a pariah for some Republicansfor his stubborn rejection of the former presidentDonald Trump, underscoring the party's departure from traditional conservatism."

today in Washington

At 5:10 p.m. Eastern time, the Bidens will arrive in Maui.

The Bidens leave Maui at 11:25 p.m. for Reno, Nevada.


Start young!

My friend reads a book to her son in which Minnie is running for president and discusses survey methods! This is my new favorite book and I haven't even read it yet (but I did ask for a copy)

—Emily Guskin (@EmGusk)21 augustus 2023

Thank you for reading. See you tomorrow.


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